usdchf
market buy 1.2216
0.2
S/L 1.2179
opern reason:
usdchf 26.03.07 4h

lqd's trading journal
Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence.
- Michael O'Brien -
Jack has been on a winning streak, and his account balance is up, way up from where he started. He has generated more in a month than their parents ever earned in a year. He now has a lot more money than his neighbors, friends, and relatives. He is on top of the world, but is he satisfied? No, he can't believe his good luck. He feels his good fortune is just a fluke that could end at any moment. Have you ever felt like Jack? If you have, you're not alone. Many successful people feel they are unworthy of success. They feel they are imposters, as if they will be caught for being a phony at any moment.
Trading the markets is difficult. It requires rock solid confidence. Market conditions are constantly changing. If you have wavering confidence, you may find that your trading acumen abandons you at the slightest disappointment. Suddenly, you give up on winning stocks too early. You back losers or take the wrong side of what could be successful trades. At other times, you simply can't maintain your sense of conviction about what to trade, and when to trade it.
It's vital to have rock solid confidence. You can't be easily swayed. A winning trader doesn't waver when faced with seemingly impossible challenges. He or she is stable, calm, and objective, even under the most chaotic market conditions.
What is the secret behind rock solid confidence? What all confident people know is that the only opinion that matters is their own. Instead of caring what anyone else thinks, they look inward. Looking inward for guidance and direction is unnatural for many people, however. Throughout most people's lives, significant others have tried to place conditions on whether they will receive approval or disapproval. Parents imply, "I'll love you, but only if you do what I say." Teachers warn, "I'll give you a good grade if you follow my instructions," and supervisors control workers by saying, "I'll give you a good performance evaluation if you meet my expectations." It is reasonable to start looking toward others for a sense of personal value. For some people, the need for recognition becomes extreme, though. Some people let others define their self worth. If others give them approval, they feel good. But if they meet with dissatisfaction, they feel poorly about themselves. Over time, one may get into the habit of looking toward others for approval. Some traders, for example, may even be motivated to trade in order to gain approval. They may think, "If I can make a fortune trading, I'll get the love and respect I've always wanted." Although such thoughts may be motivating, they can be a hindrance to profitably consistent trading. First, one is often disappointed to find that money isn't usually associated with respect and approval. And even when it is, most people find that they never get the level of respect that they had hoped to find. In the end, one usually becomes disappointed and loses the motivation to trade over the long term. Second, if you tie your winnings to your self worth, you put an extreme amount of pressure on yourself to perform. And when the stakes are that high, one usually chokes under the strain. Trading is difficult enough as it is. Putting on extra pressure makes a challenging task almost impossible.
Rather than look outward toward others for a sense of self-worth, it is vital to look inward. The only opinion that should matter is your own. Trade because you find it personally rewarding, not because you think you'll eventually gain approval from others. Focus on the immediate experience of trading. You'll find it more enjoyable, and feeling a need to live up to societal expectations about what is "right" or "wrong" won't distract you. If you allow yourself to set your own personal standards, you'll feel a sense of freedom, and this sense of freedom will allow you to trade effortlessly and creatively. So avoid looking toward others for approval and self-definition. The more you can look inward, and think independently, the more confident you will feel, and when you feel confident, you will trade more profitably.
Among mortals second thoughts are wisest.
- Euripides -
"Damn The Torpedoes" was Admiral David Farragut's famous battle cry, and historically speaking, the decision to risk everything for an important victory during the Civil War battle at Mobile Bay worked out very well. But when you're taking risks to trade the markets, allowing yourself to get caught up in the moment and take on more than a prudent level of risk is almost certain to get you burned, sooner or later.
Many people unconsciously adopt a "damn the torpedoes" approach after either a big loss or a big gain in the markets. After a loss, you might hope to win it all back or even get ahead. After a gain, you might feel impervious to market forces. Either way, there's a possibility you're letting your emotions crowd out your more logical, sensible self, which is always a bad idea when trading the markets.
There's nothing more thrilling than anticipating what the markets will do and making a huge profit off of your astute observation. Not only do you feel on top of the world for getting it right, but the feeling of security from realizing a windfall is nice too. After a winning streak, it's tempting to let loose and start making some big trades. It is tempting to start thinking, "What do I have to lose? I'm far ahead of the game. I can take a little more risk." Although it is often useful to take advantage of a hot streak when you hit upon one, it doesn't mean that you should act recklessly. It's essential for long-term survival to maintain discipline and manage risk (for example, through protective stops, options, or risking a minimal amount of your account balance on a single trade). It is essential that you fight the urge to trade impulsively. You must maintain discipline.
What is the harm of taking unnecessary risks? Market uncertainty is the main reason. You really don't know with 100% certainty that your next set of trades will be wins. When you take unnecessary chances, it's as if you are working under the assumption that you will definitely win in the future. But no one has a crystal ball. Trading is about taking advantage of probabilities, and working under the assumption that if you make enough trades (and manage risk with each trade), the law of averages will work in your favor. That said, from the perspective of probability theory, it's possible that you will hit upon a string of wins, and by making larger trades and lowering your limits, you'll reap big rewards. But at the same time, you may also encounter a string of losers. If you act impulsively, or abandon your risk management plan, you'll tend to give back all your profits and more. It's vital for your long-term survival to continue to manage risk, even after a long string of successful trades.
It is tempting to feel you can abandon risk limits and go for the big wins no matter what the costs. Some of the most profitable Market Wizards have put their financial life on the line and made huge profits, but there are also those traders who spent the rest of their lives trying to pay back losses. In the long run, it's better to survive. By managing your risks, you will increase your odds of success.